Polymarket is launching a new feature that’s already very close to the world of stocks and IPOs. Thanks to a collaboration with Nasdaq Private Market, it now allows you to "bet" on how large private companies will perform — for example:

- whether they’ll complete an IPO by a certain date

- or whether their valuation will exceed a certain amount by the end of the year

The price of these "bets" shows the probability the market currently assigns to the event (e.g., a contract priced at 0.70 = the market gives it roughly a 70% chance). As a source of official figures (valuation, IPO date, etc.), they use data from Nasdaq Private Market, so it’s not just speculation.

For investors it’s simple: in a market that’s normally quite opaque (unicorns worth more than $5 trillion, long before IPO), a new public indicator of expectations is emerging. It’s not an investment in the stock itself, but you can read sentiment from it — and over time it could be a useful complement alongside traditional reports and informal valuation estimates.

What do you think about it?